2026-10-03 · equities

Lula's lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil vote, CNT/MDA poll shows

Source Investing.com

• By Reuters -
• Oct 03, 2026

SAO PAULO: Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro narrowed ​ahead of Sunday's first-round vote, a CNT/MDA ‌poll showed on Saturday, while also pointing to a tighter race in a likely runoff.

In a first-round scenario, ​Lula would receive 43.1% of voter support, ​followed by Bolsonaro (38%), Augusto Cury (3.2%), Ronaldo Caiado (3%) ⁠and Renan Santos (1.5%), according to the poll.

• A September 15 ​poll had Lula at 40.5%, Bolsonaro at 30.4%, ​Cury at 6%, Caiado at 3% and Santos at 2.7%
• Considering only projected valid votes, which exclude people telling the ​pollster they would leave their ballots blank or ​void somehow, Lula reached 47.8% voter support against Bolsonaro's 42.1%
• If ‌no ⁠candidate wins more than 50% of valid votes in the Sunday first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff on October 25
• In a ​likely runoff, ​Lula would ⁠receive 47.3% of voter support, compared with 43.1% for the eldest son of ​former President Jair Bolsonaro, the poll ​said
• In ⁠the previous survey, Lula led Senator Bolsonaro by 47.3% to 40% in the runoff
• MDA surveyed 2,007 people ⁠from ​September 30 to October 2, ​with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points