2026-08-17 · equities

A High-Probability Trading Setup to Watch This Week

natural gas update at daily chart basists natural gas chart which is ready fro strong move but have patience some consolidation will show here some important breakout level here as per chart study. natural gas sustain above 323 or close above daily base than will see big move 380-400+++ soon than stop loss will be 309@. where 289 strong support if sustain below or close below than sharp dwon side expect 245--220+++ than sl will be 303 close basis

Gold Price Forecast | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Natural Gas0:00 - Weekly Commodities Update & Market Sentiment Overview 0:28 - Natural Gas: NYMEX:NG1! Quadruple Top Rejection & Ascending Triangle vs. Rising Wedge 5:11 - Crude Oil: NYMEX:CL1! Major Character Shift & Potential Daily Downtrend Confirmation 8:07 - US Dollar (DXY): CME FedWatch Interest Rate Hike Probabilities & Macro Range 9:19 - Gold: COMEX:GC1! Mini Falling Wedge Pattern & Historical Weekly Downtrend Analysis 11:43 - Silver: COMEX:SI1! Deep Relative Weakness, Support Crack & Major Rebound Levels

NATGAS FREE SIGNAL|SHORT| ✅NATGAS has rallied into an ICT supply zone after a strong displacement move, sweeping buy-side liquidity into a premium array. A bearish reaction from this level could target resting sell-side liquidity and inefficiencies below. ————————— Entry: 3.35$ Stop Loss: 3.39$ Take Profit: 3.30$ Time Frame: 3H ————————— SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅

NG Long — $NGN26 breaking out above the 3.25-3.30 shelf; lookingHTF structure has shifted back bullish after holding the 3.10 area and reclaiming the prior 3.20-3.25 shelf. The LTF now confirms with a high-volume push through the 3.25/3.30 resistance zone and a close near the highs. Prefer entry on a shallow retest/hold of the breakout area around 3.31 rather than chasing the 3.33 print; invalidation is below the breakout candle low and reclaimed shelf, with the next meaningful upside level at the 3.40 swing high. 📍 Entry: 3.310 🛑 Stop: 3.242 🎯 Target: 3.400 ⚖️ R:R: 1.32

Natural Gas Daily: Fibonacci Targets Encounter Major 200 EMA & HNatural Gas Futures ( NYMEX:NG1! - NYMEX) is displaying an aggressive recovery structure on the Daily (1D) chart. While the medium-term Fibonacci projections point toward higher targets, the asset is fast approaching a multi-layered institutional supply wall that demands strict technical caution. ### The Technical Framework: * **The Bullish Structural Pivot:** After successfully defending the macro horizontal demand floor at **2.476** in late April, the asset established a sequence of higher lows and activated a structural bullish pivot, breaking above the March and May local peaks. * **The Impending Confluence Cluster (3.422 - 3.446):** As price action attempts to expand deeper into the Fibonacci framework, a severe structural convergence zone is looming directly ahead: * **Horizontal Resistance:** The key macro supply line is firmly set at **3.422**. * **Fibonacci Confluence:** The crucial **0.618 Fibonacci retracement level** sits exactly at **3.424**. * **The 200 EMA Baseline:** The long-term **200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA 200 - purple line)** is currently tracking right at **3.446**. ### Price Action Observations & Local Rejection: The chart shows that entering this overhead supply block will not be a simple task. The recent daily candle that spiked toward the 0.5 Fibonacci level (3.362) left a prominent upper rejection wick (selling tail), followed by immediate downside closes into early June. This confirms that institutional sellers are actively defending the approaches to the **3.42 - 3.45 cluster**. ### Strategic & Macro Outlook: The dashed trajectory line illustrates a realistic, multi-phase technical sequence: 1. **The Corrective Throwback (Immediate Term):** Short-term momentum is undergoing a healthy mean-reversion pull-back. As long as the price maintains structural acceptance above the psychological $3.000 / $3.100 region, the broader bullish market structure remains intact. 2. **The Confluence Battle:** Once liquidity is re-accumulated, a renewed drive will test the tripple resistance wall (EMA 200 + 0.618 Fibo + 3.422 Horizontal). A daily candle acceptance above **3.450** is mandatory to unlock the extended upside projections toward **1.618 (3.949)** and **2.618 (4.474)**. ### Professional Playbook: Chasing longs directly into a descending Daily 200 EMA blended with a 0.618 Fibonacci level carries a highly unfavorable risk-to-reward ratio. The optimal execution plan requires monitoring lower timeframes (such as H4 or H1) for stabilization signs near the immediate structural floors before looking to position for the next major retest of the macro resistance wall. --- 📊 **ProData Chart** | By Rogerio Zaglia *Technical Analysis, Energy Markets & Global Asset Research.* ⚠️ **Disclaimer:** For educational and informational purposes only. This study does not constitute investment advice or trading recommendations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The Art of Building a Position: Scaling In Meeting Scaling OutOne of the greatest challenges traders face is not necessarily identifying a potential opportunity, but rather determining how to participate in it. Markets rarely move in straight lines, and even when the broader directional bias appears well defined, price can still retrace, consolidate, or test key levels before continuing its move. This reality often creates a difficult dilemma. Enter too aggressively and risk poor timing, or wait for confirmation and risk missing part of the move altogether. Rather than focusing exclusively on finding the perfect entry or exit, some traders choose to focus on trade construction. Scaling into a position and scaling out of a position are two techniques designed to help manage uncertainty by spreading decisions across multiple predefined price levels. The current setup in Natural Gas futures provides an interesting case study to explore these concepts. The Technical Picture The weekly chart currently presents several constructive elements that may support a bullish scenario. First, the MACD indicator has recently produced a bullish crossover on the weekly timeframe. While momentum indicators are inherently lagging by nature, they can still provide useful confirmation when combined with other forms of analysis. A bullish crossover often reflects improving momentum and may suggest that market participants are beginning to shift from a defensive posture toward a more constructive one. That signal is reinforced by a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern that developed at the close of the most recent week. Bullish engulfing formations are commonly monitored because they indicate that buyers were able to absorb selling pressure and finish the period with stronger conviction than sellers. Supporting this development is a Buy UFO support zone located between 2.883 and 2.676. The appearance of bullish price action immediately after a reaction from this support area suggests that this zone may have played a role in attracting demand. Another notable feature is the existence of a small opening gap above the previous weekly close near 3.290. While gaps do not necessarily need to be filled immediately, they often become reference points that traders monitor as markets evolve. Looking higher, two relevant resistance areas stand out. The first is located at 3.736, representing the end of a significant open weekly gap. The second is located at 4.354, representing the origin of that same weekly gap. Both levels may attract attention from market participants and could potentially act as resistance zones should prices continue higher. Taken together, the bullish engulfing pattern, the MACD crossover, the nearby support structure, and the opening gap create a constructive technical backdrop. At the same time, the presence of multiple support and resistance levels highlights why trade management can be just as important as market direction. Why Single Entries and Single Exits Can Be Challenging Many traders naturally gravitate toward all-or-nothing decisions. They enter a full position at one price and aim to exit the entire position at a single target. While simple, this approach assumes a level of precision that markets do not always provide. Even when a broader bullish thesis remains intact, price may retrace before advancing. Likewise, a market may reach an intermediate resistance level, pause, and then continue higher. This uncertainty is one reason why scaling techniques have become popular among traders seeking a more structured approach to position management. Rather than attempting to identify a perfect price, scaling methods recognize that markets often evolve through multiple stages. The Concept of Scaling In Scaling in refers to entering a position gradually rather than all at once. Instead of allocating all capital at a single level, traders may divide their intended exposure across several predefined entry zones. Using the current Natural Gas setup as an educational example, a trader with a bullish thesis might consider several potential participation areas. An initial allocation could be established near current market levels. If price were to revisit the opening gap area near 3.290, an additional allocation could potentially be added. Should a deeper retracement occur, another allocation might be considered near the Buy UFO support zone around 2.883. The key principle is that every allocation is planned in advance and tied to a single market thesis. In this case, the thesis remains valid as long as price continues to respect the broader support structure. A move below 2.676 would represent a potential invalidation level for the overall setup. Scaling in offers several potential advantages. It may improve the average entry price if the market retraces before advancing. It reduces the pressure associated with perfect timing. It allows traders to participate immediately while still preserving flexibility should additional opportunities emerge. However, scaling in also introduces additional complexity. Without careful position sizing, traders may unintentionally increase risk beyond acceptable limits. This is why total exposure should be determined before the first entry is placed rather than after the market begins moving. The Concept of Scaling Out Scaling out applies the same philosophy to exits. Rather than liquidating an entire position at a single target, traders may choose to reduce exposure progressively as price approaches predefined objectives. Using the current chart structure, a trader might identify 3.736 as a first objective and 4.354 as a secondary objective. If the market reaches the first target, a portion of the position could potentially be reduced while maintaining exposure to the remainder of the trade. Should the market continue higher, the remaining position could then be managed toward the second target. This approach offers several potential benefits. Partial reductions can help lock in gains while preserving participation in a continued move. Scaling out may also reduce emotional pressure because traders no longer face an all-or-nothing decision at a single price level. At the same time, scaling out involves trade-offs. If the market accelerates significantly beyond the planned targets, a partially reduced position may capture less of the extended move than a full position would have. As with all trade management decisions, there is no universally correct solution. The objective is to create a framework that aligns with the trader's goals, risk tolerance, and methodology. When Scaling In Meets Scaling Out The most interesting application occurs when both techniques are combined into a single trade plan. Instead of focusing on one entry and one exit, traders create a roadmap consisting of multiple predefined decision points. For example, an educational trade scenario based on the current setup might include: Initial participation near current levels. Additional participation near 3.290 if reached. Additional participation near 2.883 if reached. Partial reduction near 3.736. Final reduction near 4.354. Overall trade invalidation below 2.676. This type of structure does not eliminate uncertainty. Rather, it attempts to organize uncertainty into a series of predefined actions. By determining responses before the market reaches those levels, traders may reduce the likelihood of emotional decision-making during periods of heightened volatility. The emphasis shifts from prediction toward preparation. Illustrative Trade Scenario As an educational case study, the current technical structure may be viewed through the lens of a bullish market thesis. The bullish engulfing pattern and weekly MACD crossover suggest improving momentum. The opening gap near 3.290 and the Buy UFO support zone near 2.883 provide potential reference areas where buyers may remain interested. Meanwhile, resistance levels at 3.736 and 4.354 provide logical areas where market participants may reassess positions. One possible illustration would involve gradually building exposure between current levels and support while gradually reducing exposure as price approaches resistance. Using this framework, traders can evaluate potential reward relative to the distance between planned entries and the invalidation level. Importantly, this remains a hypothetical example designed solely to illustrate trade management principles. Market outcomes remain uncertain, and no technical signal guarantees future price behavior. Natural Gas Futures, E-mini Natural Gas Futures and Micro Natural Gas Futures For traders interested in implementing scaling techniques, contract size can play an important role. Natural Gas futures provide exposure to the underlying market through standardized contracts traded on CME Group exchanges. The standard Natural Gas futures contract (NG) represents 10,000 MMBtu of natural gas. The E-mini Natural Gas futures contract (QG) represents 2,500 MMBtu. And, the Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract (MNG) represents 1,000 MMBtu, making it one-tenth the size of the standard contract. Because the E-mini and the micro contracts carry smaller notional exposure, some traders may find it useful when constructing positions across multiple entry levels. For example, scaling into a trade using micro contracts may allow more flexibility when adjusting exposure incrementally. Natural Gas futures (NG) Tick = 0.00025 = $2.50 per contract Margin = ~$3,100 per contract E-mini Natural Gas futures (QG) Tick = 0.005 = $12.50 per contract Margin = ~$775 per contract Micro Natural Gas futures (MNG) Tick = 0.00025 = $0.25 per contract Margin = ~$310 per contract Margin requirements vary over time based on market conditions and exchange policies. Traders should always consult their brokerage firm for current margin information before establishing any futures position. Regardless of contract size, the underlying principles of risk management remain unchanged. Risk Management: The Foundation of Every Trade Plan Scaling techniques should never be confused with risk management itself. They are tools that operate within a risk management framework. Before considering entries, targets, or position adjustments, traders should first determine the maximum amount of capital they are willing to risk on a particular idea. The invalidation point should be identified before the first position is initiated. Total exposure should be planned in advance. Each scale-in level should be accounted for within the original risk budget. Likewise, scaling out should be viewed as a trade management decision rather than a guarantee of improved performance. The ultimate objective is consistency of process. A well-constructed plan allows traders to respond systematically regardless of whether the market advances immediately, retraces first, or invalidates the original thesis altogether. Key Takeaways The current Natural Gas futures setup presents an interesting educational example because it combines multiple forms of technical evidence with clearly defined support and resistance levels. The weekly MACD bullish crossover, bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, opening gap near 3.290, and Buy UFO support zone collectively support a constructive market narrative. Meanwhile, resistance levels at 3.736 and 4.354 provide logical reference points for managing positions should prices continue higher. More importantly, this setup highlights a broader lesson that extends far beyond a single market. Scaling in and scaling out are not attempts to predict the future with greater accuracy. They are methods designed to structure participation in an environment where uncertainty is unavoidable. In many cases, the art of trading may have less to do with finding the perfect entry and more to do with building a position thoughtfully from beginning to end. Data Consideration When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.

NATGAS REBOUND AHEAD|LONG| ✅NATGAS is reacting from a key ICT demand zone after a sharp sell-side liquidity sweep. Accumulation within discount pricing suggests potential bullish continuation toward the nearby imbalance and resting buy-side liquidity. Time Frame 2H. LONG🚀 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅

NATGAS — The Diagonal Trap & The Second Wave QuestionThis count is built on Elliott Wave rules and the guidelines shown on the chart. I'm treating the first leg as a Leading Diagonal in wave (1) (compression, overlap, and the typical 5-3-5-3-5 rhythm). Inside a Leading Diagonal, waves 1/3/5 can look motive, but the whole structure is still a Diagonal, not a standard Impulse. Educational note (why there are two scenarios) The core question here is simple: is the post-diagonal correction a Zigzag or a Flat (especially an Expanded Flat)? That's why two scenarios stay valid until price breaks the rules: A clean, direct correction favors a Zigzag. A fast sweep above the prior peak followed by a sharp dump often supports an Expanded Flat (liquidity grab behavior). Market psychology In diagonal/corrective environments, the market isn't "trending" — it's negotiating. It tests patience, hunts liquidity, and once structure is complete… continuation can appear suddenly and aggressively. The plan (only while the rules hold) Aggressive: correction is complete and price transitions into a new motive sequence after a clear break of the corrective rhythm/channel. Conservative: one more corrective rotation (Flat/Zigzag) before the larger bullish continuation. Invalidation / structure: the key invalidation levels marked on the chart are non‑negotiable. Without them, it's not analysis — it's a story. Patterns whisper. I listen. — Mr. Nobody

NG1! SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT NG1! SIGNAL Trade Direction: short Entry Level: 3.273 Target Level: 3.024 Stop Loss: 3.439 RISK PROFILE Risk level: medium Suggested risk: 1% Timeframe: 7h Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅

Gold Price Forecast | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Natural Gas.0:02 — Intro & Commodities Macro Overview Setting the technical execution roadmap for energy, forex, and precious metals. 0:28 — Natural Gas: Failed Breakout & Weekly Downtrend NYMEX:NG1! Natural Gas staged a 6% Monday breakout that immediately lacked follow-through. Because the asset is locked in a macro weekly downtrend, breaking out directly into heavy overhead resistance severely limits bullish upside. 1:55 — Natural Gas: The $3.30 Resistance Flip & Downside Targets Price executed a textbook support-to-resistance flip at $3.30, resulting in a sharp 9% rejection. Bears are now targeting the $2.893 double-bottom floor; a break below this zone exposes the long-term ascending trendline at $2.60. 5:16 — WTI Crude Oil: Geopolitical Peace Talks Sentiment NYMEX:CL1! Crude oil faces overnight headlines regarding peace negotiations. The immediate price action is key: a mild 2% to 3% drop shows the market is brushing it off, while a 5%+ tank validates structural downside follow-through. 6:11 — WTI Crude Oil: Bearish Rising Wedge & RSI Divergence Oil is carving out a mature rising wedge pattern with exhausted higher highs. This structure is reinforced by a massive bearish RSI divergence. Bears need a decisive break below the immediate $127 pivot to trigger a deeper correction. 8:20 — US Dollar Index (DXY): Megaphone Churn & Interest Rate Holds The DXY continues to chop within a macro megaphone pattern. Driven by hot inflation, the market is pricing in zero cuts and zero hikes well into next year, keeping the dollar pinned to the upper boundary of its trading range. 9:26 — Gold (XAU/USD): Falling Wedge Pattern Developing COMEX:GC1! Despite a flat weekly close, Gold is flashing strong lower wicks. Short-term support breaks are lacking bearish follow-through, signaling a bullish falling wedge is forming beneath the broader weekly downtrend. 10:46 — Silver (XAG/USD): Multi-Tested Horizontal Support Floor COMEX:SI1! Silver shifted from relative weakness to neutral after hitting a major horizontal support shelf. This critical floor has been defended over 10 times; a breakdown here will flush out resting stops and drag Gold lower. 11:56 — Silver (XAG/USD): Bearish Head & Shoulders Blueprint If support holds, a relief bounce will likely form a lower-high Right Shoulder. This aligns with Gold's falling wedge: a final wedge drop in Gold will likely cause Silver to break its neckline support and accelerate downward.

NG1! BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG NG1! SIGNAL Trade Direction: long Entry Level: 2.922 Target Level: 3.107 Stop Loss: 2.799 RISK PROFILE Risk level: medium Suggested risk: 1% Timeframe: 9h Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅

Natural Gas MCX Future Intraday Technical Analysis - 25 May, 26MCX:NATURALGAS1! Natural Gas Futures — Intraday Structure Outlook (15-min | MCX) Next Sharing is Only After 10 Boosts, or Next Monday! (If these levels support your preparation or execution, a quick boost or comment helps maintain structured updates.) Natural Gas is trading around 276.7, currently languishing below the Zero Line – 277.30. The price action exhibits an aggressive, high-velocity distribution phase following a steep, nearly vertical breakdown from the 290 region. As we kick off the May 25th session, sellers remain firmly in control, capitalizing on changing weather models and an immediate unwinding of risk premiums. The market is currently consolidating at its lower bounds; a clear break from this decision cluster will trigger the next directional expansion. Bullish Structure Longs activate above 284.23 (Long Entry) sustained acceptance (confirmed further only if price manages to reclaim and stabilize back above the 277.30 Zero Line). Targets: 285.03 – first upside objective 290.00 – extended expansion zone Control: Intraday bullish structure weakens below 282.70 (Add Long Pos.) Sustained trade below 279.90 (Long Exit) cancels aggressive longs Bearish Structure Shorts activate below 281.17 (Short Entry), especially given that price is structurally trapped beneath the 277.30 Zero Line overhead resistance. Targets: 268.97 – first downside objective 264.00 – extended breakdown zone Control: Immediate short covering required above 285.50 (Short Exit) Bias remains structurally protected below the 289.20 (Sell Till Safe) zone Neutral Zone 279.90 – 284.23 is the decision band. Inside this range, expect highly volatile, rotational price action driven by immediate liquidity sweeps. Given the absolute dominance of the bears shown on the hourly timeframe, do not anticipate bottoms. Wait for structural candle acceptance outside this band. Structure first. Confirmation next. Execution last. No anticipation. No emotional bias. Let price confirm intent.

NATURAL GAS may very well end the year at 1.275Natural Gas (NG1!) is printing a wide Head and Shoulders (HS&) pattern of the 1W time-frame. A similar such pattern was formed on the previous 2022 Top, which also started the descending trend of NG. If the H&S plays out as before, it should technically target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.275, which would also be a Lower Low on the Channel Down. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇

NG1! – Institutional Scale-InMarket Regime & Order FlowThe Henry Hub Front-Month Natural Gas Futures (NYMEX:NG1!) have completed a textbook structural liquidity sweep, signaling a definitive cyclical bottom. Institutional smart money is actively absorbing retail panic selling at the critical high-volume support zone. The upside volume profile remains completely vacuumed, paving a clear path for a long-term macro reversal .The Supply Crunch: Decade-Low InventoriesThe primary fundamental driver for this setup is the severe storage depletion across major global hubs .European Storage Imperative: European gas inventories entered the injection season at decade lows, currently hovering at critical depths . By legal and regulatory mandate, these sovereign storage systems must be aggressively refilled to 90% capacity ahead of November 1st .U.S. LNG Export Maximization: With structural supply disruptions ongoing in Eastern corridors and Qatar, the United States is operating as the primary swing supplier. The absolute necessity for Europe to secure gas means U.S. LNG export terminals will continuously drain domestic liquidity, pricing in a massive risk premium into the NYMEX contracts .The Demand Catalyst: Extreme Summer HeatwavesThe short-to-medium term structural mismatch is heavily amplified by the meteorological outlook .The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) temperature models project significantly above-normal temperatures across much of the United States for Summer 2026 .As power grids experience extreme cooling demand, coal-to-gas switching will no longer suffice . Aggressive power sector buying, combined with the returning heat signatures in Asian markets, will force commercial operators to chase physical contracts regardless of price.

NATGAS Strong Rising Trendline! Buy! Hello,Traders! NATGAS is respecting a strong rising trendline while liquidity rests below recent lows. SMC structure remains bullish as the retracement into discount pricing could fuel continuation toward the upper target liquidity zone. Time Frame 8H. Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too!

NATURALGAS Bullish Flag Breakout Setup #NATURALGAS JUNE FUT is consolidating after a strong impulsive rally and currently trading inside a bullish continuation structure on the 1H timeframe. Price is respecting: Rising channel support EMA support zone Higher low formation As long as 289 zone holds, momentum remains positive. A clean breakout above 295 can trigger fresh upside momentum toward 298-300+ levels. Trade safe and manage risk properly. ⚡ #mcx #naturalgas #commoditytrading #priceaction #technicalanalysis #tradingview

How Summer Cooling Demand Could Pull Henry Hub HigherThe U.S.-Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have exposed Henry Hub's relative insulation from global gas shocks. However, rising summer cooling demand across the U.S. and North Asia, alongside tighter LNG availability, could increasingly link Henry Hub to international gas market stress. HENRY HUB'S DIVERGENCE Henry Hub prices remain near their pre-war levels from 27/Feb, even briefly falling below them during April and May, while JKM and TTF continue to trade well above their pre-war levels. Although Henry Hub initially rallied following the outbreak of the conflict, the move quickly faded as strong U.S. supply and domestic fundamentals outweighed the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Even at its peak, Henry Hub's rally was significantly smaller than the sharp moves seen in JKM and TTF. The divergence is structural rather than accidental. Europe and Asia remain heavily dependent on LNG imports, particularly cargoes from Qatar, whose exports almost entirely transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global LNG trade. However, the initial price shock proved larger than fundamentals could sustain. JKM more than doubled above pre-war levels by 19/Mar before retreating as ceasefire hopes emerged and Asian buyers shifted toward coal, with TTF following a similar path. The pullback does not mean supply risks have disappeared. So far, the conflict has escalated during a seasonally weaker demand period ahead of peak summer cooling demand. From June onward, simultaneous cooling demand from the U.S. and Far East Asia, alongside muted Qatari LNG supply, could tighten global LNG balances and push Henry Hub higher. SUMMER COOLING DEMAND AND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ RISK The U.S., Europe, and North Asia broadly experience summer simultaneously. Meteorological summer generally runs from June through August across these regions. However, cooling demand intensity differs materially. The U.S. and North Asia are expected to be the primary gas demand drivers this summer, while Europe's gas demand remains more winter-heating oriented. Still, the EU typically refills its gas inventories during the summer ahead of the winter heating season, sustaining LNG demand. Hotter-than-normal summer forecasts could pull Northeast Asian buyers back into the LNG spot market after several months of relatively soft demand. Source: NOAA The NOAA Summer Temperature Outlook projects above-normal temperatures across much of the United States during summer 2026, while the Japan Meteorological Agency Seasonal Forecast also signals elevated temperature risks across Japan and parts of East Asia. The Strait of Hormuz complicates the outlook for Asia in a nuanced way. In the near term, higher LNG prices caused by the disruption have pushed Asian buyers toward coal. Japan's gas-fired power generation fell 13% in April, while coal generation rose 11%, and South Korea's coal-fired generation surged 40%. Both countries have also increased coal imports to offset tighter LNG availability. However, this substitution has limits. As summer temperatures rise and cooling demand strengthens, coal switching alone may no longer be enough, forcing Asian buyers to return aggressively to the LNG market regardless of price. U.S. AND EUROPEAN INVENTORIES, LNG EXPORTS, AND SUPPLY BALANCES Another key factor for Henry Hub this summer will be inventory levels across major gas markets. European gas storage entered the 2026 injection season at decade lows. As of 13/May, EU storage stood at just 35.8% of capacity, 13 percentage points below the five-year average of 48.8%. Source: Swiss Federal Office of Energy The EU's regulatory target requires storage to reach 90% of capacity by 01/Nov. Europe's refill imperative is therefore not optional; it is legally mandated and strategically critical. Analysts estimate that Europe needs roughly 67 bcm of LNG-equivalent supply through the summer, 17 bcm more than in 2025. With Qatari supply still disrupted, U.S. LNG is the primary swing supplier. The U.S. supply picture remains comparatively comfortable for now. As of 01/May, U.S. gas inventories were 6.7% above the five-year average, while shale-driven dry gas production remains historically strong. Source: EIA Natural Gas Storage Data On the surface, this appears bearish for Henry Hub. However, that storage cushion could narrow quickly if summer cooling demand strengthens and LNG exports continue operating near maximum capacity. That said, the impact on Henry Hub will be indirect through sustained LNG export demand. Cheniere Energy raised its 2026 LNG export outlook , reinforcing expectations that U.S. export terminals will remain highly utilised through the summer. Demand from Asia and Europe could keep U.S. LNG exports elevated throughout the injection season, reducing the pool of domestic supply available just as U.S. cooling demand rises. HISTORICAL EXAMPLE A similar dynamic played out during the summer of 2021, offering one of the closest historical parallels to the current setup. The 2021 rally was driven by a global demand surge. Post-COVID reopening boosted industrial and power demand across Asia and Europe, while a severe drought in Brazil reduced hydropower generation and increased gas consumption. At the same time, European inventories entered summer below seasonal averages, forcing buyers to compete aggressively for LNG cargoes. Henry Hub initially moved more slowly due to strong domestic production and comfortable U.S. inventories. However, as LNG exports accelerated and export terminals operated near full capacity, U.S. gas balances tightened steadily through the summer. Market participants can utilise CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures to exercise a view on a rise in US natural gas prices. Although the micro contract was only introduced later (launched on 06 November 2023) and was not available during the 2021 period. Long CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (Illustrative Equivalent) Entry: USD 3.1/MMBtu Exit: USD 4.0/MMBtu PnL: 1,000 × (4.0 – 3.1) = USD 900 This trade would have yielded a net gain of 29%. This content is sponsored. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading setups and more effectively express market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs at tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed.

Gold Price Forecast | Oil | Dollar | Silver | Natural Gas.Commodities Update Timestamps 0:00 — Intro & Macro Commodity Overview Setting the stage for this week's technical setups across energy, metals, and macro forex trends. 0:30 — Natural Gas ( NYMEX:NG1! ): Picture-Perfect Tightening Range Natural Gas is consolidating inside a rigid, multi-week tightening range (lower highs and higher lows) after its initial breakout from downtrend resistance. The Setup: Watch the immediate pivot levels. A breakout must clear the overhead stops by at least 1.86% to confirm true bullish momentum. A fakeout above the pivots that quickly collapses back into the range will likely validate a macro weekly bear flag, exposing a flush toward the lower support shelves. 3:56 — Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ): Flawless Resistance-to-Support Flip Crude Oil remains locked in a textbook macro uptrend across the monthly, weekly, and daily timeframes, fueled by unresolved geopolitical headlines. The Setup: Bulls remain in absolute control by consistently turning prior resistance ceilings (around 142–147) into rock-solid support floors. If current structures hold, the path of least resistance points toward a continuation leg targeting the 580s. The first sign of a structural shift for bears would require a decisive break below the trailing daily higher low. 6:03 — US Dollar (DXY): Hot Inflation & The Megaphone Pattern The US Dollar continues to chop violently within a massive broadening formation (megaphone). The Setup: Recent hot CPI and PPI data prints are subtly shifting the macro probabilities away from rate cuts and toward potential rate hikes. While hikes aren't officially on the table yet, the mere anticipation is putting a heavy floor under the DXY. A true macro breakout past megaphone resistance would trigger significant downside pressure across the broader equity and commodity spaces. 7:35 — Gold ( COMEX:GC1! ): Tracking the Weekly Downtrend Gold is exhibiting clear structural weakness, locked in a confirmed weekly downtrend (lower highs and lower lows) for the first time in years. The Setup: The current bounce is shaping up to be a macro lower high. While the 4,500 psychological level is providing temporary support, a break below the 4,100 pivot will accelerate the weekly downtrend. If 4,000 cracks, there is an incredibly clean pocket with minimal historical price action down to the 3,600 structural demand zone. Expecting choppy, sideways distribution for now. 10:08 — Silver ( COMEX:SI1! ): Rejection at $90 Ceiling & Extreme Volatility Silver has completely reversed its previous relative strength, shifting into extreme relative weakness after a brutal rejection off the $90 quadruple-top resistance wall. The Setup: Silver collapsed 15% in just 2 days while Gold remained relatively stable, showcasing its high-beta volatility. Price is currently testing a multi-point horizontal support floor. If this pivot holds, expect Silver to transition out of relative weakness and into a neutral tracking mode relative to Gold. A breakdown below this shelf opens the trap door down to 67. 12:37 — Outro & Strategy Call Invite Final thoughts, comments Q&A, and how to get one-on-one mentorship via the links below.

Elliott Wave Analysis & Geopolitics: Natural Gas, Oil, and ...Elliott Wave Analysis & Geopolitics: Natural Gas, Oil, and Gasoline at a Crisis Crossroads The patterns whisper, and I listen._Mr.Nobody Energy markets are currently at a convergence point between technical analysis and geopolitical realities. In this analysis, using Elliott Wave principles, we will examine the trajectory of Natural Gas, Oil, and Gasoline, considering the impact of global tensions. 1. Natural Gas (NG1!): A Powerful Upward Wave: Our weekly analysis indicates that Natural Gas has entered a strong third wave of the Elliott Wave cycle. Following a complex corrective pattern, this wave holds the potential for significant growth, targeting levels such as $22.101 and beyond. 2. Oil & Gasoline: Correlation with Global Risks: Price trends in Oil and Gasoline mirror that of Natural Gas, showing a strong correlation with global conditions. This correlation gains even more significance when geopolitical factors are taken into account. 3. The Strait of Hormuz Risk & Energy Imbalance: Supply Disruption: The threat or actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz would severely disrupt global energy supply. Increased Transit Costs: Geopolitical risks lead to a sharp rise in maritime shipping and insurance costs. This increased expenditure directly elevates the final cost of energy for consumers. Structural Inflationary Factor: These cost escalations are not mere short-term fluctuations but represent a long-term, structural inflationary driver for energy markets. Conclusion: The alignment of technical analysis (upward waves) with mounting geopolitical pressure suggests a high probability of strong price appreciation in energy markets. This scenario reflects the global challenges in energy supply and transportation. Note: This analysis will also be shared across other relevant timeframes to provide a comprehensive market outlook.

A 9% Bounce Inside a 23% Bear. Here's Where It Dies.This is not financial advice. Nothing in this post is a recommendation to buy or sell any security or futures contract. I write for educational and journaling purposes. Trading natural gas futures carries the risk of total loss of capital and is not appropriate for most investors. Levels, dates, and reversals are derived from a third-party timing service whose accuracy I do not warrant. Do your own work, size your own risk, and accept the outcomes that follow from your decisions, not from mine.

RISE or FALL from MKL $2.750NYMEX:NG1! "When we focus on the systems and process of compounding great decisions the score and percentage will take care of itself." -TreyHighPwr Here on the 4Hr TF we have IMO very easy to read PA (Price Action). Buyers developed from the HTF LVN and rallied breaking the descending eR/LQ trendline. The start of May price pushed up into a Daily Supply zone and sellers did a good job of defending and pushed price back down to retest the bottom side of the eR/LQ trendline and we had a beautiful bounce play. (Textbook break and retest) Now that price has officially entered the HTF Daily Supply Zone for the 2nd time & sellers successfully resisted higher pricing defending well both times, we are here back trading around MKL $2.750 Key Question, Will buyers support MKL $2.750/4Hr Swing EQ Lvl or will sellers resist from higher pricing and push lower? Only time will tell... Let's manage the book skillfully! (Strict governed downside risk and print highside A+ asymmetric returns.) #BHM500K

NG Long — $NGM26 breaking out above the 2.88 shelf with volume aSetup: On the 4h chart, NG has been building higher lows since the Apr 29 capitulation low near 2.615, with the Apr 30 impulse bar launching price through the 2.75 consolidation zone. The most recent 4h structure shows price reclaiming the 2.85–2.88 shelf that was resistance in early May and breaking above it today with expanding volume. On the 1h chart, the May 11 session is a textbook acceleration sequence: price opened near 2.80, a strong breakout bar drove through 2.85 at 07:00 on volume of 17k+, and the 08:00–09:00 bars held above the prior resistance shelf with follow-through volume peaking at 15k on the 09:00 bar (high 2.913). The last bar closes at 2.896, near the session high, confirming the breakout is holding. Flow: The +5.19% move with elevated volume is flagged across bullish feeds, consistent with a weather-driven or LNG export demand catalyst. COT shows non-commercials sitting at a large net short of -166k contracts — any short squeeze accelerates this move considerably as specs cover. EIA storage showed a 63 Bcf injection, which is modestly bearish on its own, but that print preceded today's price action meaning the market is looking through it. Broad energy sector bid (CL, RB also green) and commodities dominating the tape provide macro tailwind. Plan: Stop is placed below the breakout shelf that the 07:00–09:00 bars cleared and held — a close back below that zone invalidates the breakout thesis and likely signals the move was a one-session spike rather than trend resumption. Target is the prior HTF resistance cluster near 3.00 visible on the 4h chart, which capped multiple rally attempts in late March and early April. That level also represents a natural round-number zone where producer hedging (commercials) would be expected to increase. 📍 Entry: 2.896 🛑 Stop: 2.848 🎯 Target: 3.000 ⚖️ R:R: 2.17

Natural Gas MCX Future - Intraday Technical Analysis - 11 MayMCX:NATURALGAS1! Natural Gas Futures — Intraday Structure Outlook (15-min | MCX) Next Sharing is Only After 10 Boosts, or Next Monday! (If these levels support your preparation or execution, a quick boost or comment helps maintain structured updates.) Natural Gas is trading around 260.2, currently sliding below the Zero Line – 261.00. After a period of high-level distribution near the 268-270 zone, the price has broken structural supports, indicating a shift in momentum. As the new week begins, market participants are weighing cooling demand forecasts against a bearish turn in the technical structure. A failure to reclaim the pivot will open the doors for a deeper corrective expansion. Bullish Structure Longs activate above 265.76 (Long Entry) sustained acceptance (confirmed further if price recovers and holds above the 261.00 Zero Line). Targets: 266.56 – first upside objective 270.00 – extended expansion zone Control: Intraday bullish structure weakens below 264.70 (Add Long Pos.) Sustained trade below 262.76 (Long Exit) cancels aggressive longs Bearish Structure Shorts activate below 263.64 (Short Entry), especially as the price is currently trading with bearish intent below the 261.00 Zero Line support. Targets: 255.44 – first downside objective 252.00 – extended breakdown zone Control: Immediate short covering required above 266.64 (Short Exit) Bias remains structurally protected below the 269.20 (Sell Till Safe) zone Neutral Zone 262.76 – 265.76 is the decision band. Inside this range, price is rotational and liquidity-driven. Given the sharp rejection from the highs seen on the 15-min chart, wait for structural acceptance outside this band rather than chasing spikes. Structure first. Confirmation next. Execution last. No anticipation. No emotional bias. Let price confirm intent.